[Generic disease forecast for lunar year 2020 can be found in my former blog, an outdated one for lunar year 2019 is on my older blog post too. The following focuses on the COVID-19 pandemic.]
If you have been ignoring this part for the years whenever I wrote about forecast without any modern data, read on now:
While nobody has ALL the answers, universal laws help us with some. The illness tied to the new coronavirus was originally called “novel coronavirus-infected pneumonia (NCIP)”. As doctors over the world already discovered, this novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 is not limited to influence respiratory system, but has also high correlation with stroke or stomach issues in different regions at various time points. The World Health Organization (WHO) renamed it COVID-19, which is short for “COronaVIrus Disease 2019”. This re-naming is brilliant since “coronavirus-infected pneumonia” is likely to change to “coronavirus-infected hepatitis” in the fall. (For those who are curious, I will write more about how different parts of our body are connected in TCM terms later.)
The mortality rate will continue to change with the climate, and it could begin to decline in July, yet climate wise the first date since March 20, 2020 that would make a difference, nature’s inflection point, would be September 20, 2020. Although there will probably be a climax in the second half of the year, this climax should occur in October or November, during the 5th Qi of Lunar Year 2020, from September 22, 2020 to November 22, 2020. During the Fall 2020 time window, a majority of patients who will be deceased should have hepatobiliary symptoms. Moreover, new coronavirus-induced pneumonia will no longer be “coronavirus-infected pneumonia”, but “coronavirus-infected hepatitis”; the main symptoms are likely to be yellowing, drowsiness, high fever, constipation and related symptoms. The treatment plan will need to be changed from this time on.
When’s the hope? The good news is that most pandemics (“viruses” in modern science lens) won’t stay forever as they usually need Yun Qi (astronomical and climate conditions) to influence the human bodies. And that explains how TCM treats the diseases: TCM never kills the pathogens such as viruses directly, instead, if focuses on working on eliminating the conditions for those pathogens to survive and thrive. (Check out Herbal-Pal.org to learn more about this.)
Getting back to the Five Yun Six Qi further ahead: Major Yun of next Lunar Year 2021 would be Insufficient Water. For example, by February 2021, the lethality and transmission capacity of the virus are likely to begin to decline, especially during January 20 — March 20, 2021, when the climate is NOT conducive to the spread of any pandemic. While there are still risk in the first half of 2021, especially starting March 20-May 21, 2021, potentially more visible April 2 — May 21, 2021 with both host Qi and guest Qi Shaoyin King Fire, and July 22 — August 30, 2021 guest Yun excessive Fire and guest Qi Shaoyan Fire, a relatively more peaceful break would be June 15-July 22, 2021 with feeble Taiyin Dampness Soil in between. In short, April and May, July and August 2021 would be at high risk while June very low, the climate is going to be not conducive to the spread of diseases by November 2021. Within a short period of time, some journals may publish some papers, and research on mortality and infectivity. By then, there would be some very positive data telling us that the pandemic has been under control and slowly the exchanges and travels between countries can be relaxed. In fact, from September 23, 2021 to November 11 2021, hepatobiliary diseases will be at a higher risk, yet not much risk for pandemic outbreak. With a dry winter slow to come during November 11, 2021 to November 22, 2021, people with kidney water deficiency would take need to take care, for example, menstrual irregularities for women. November 22, 2021 — January 20, 2022 with Taiyang Cold Water, a relatively real winter (cold instead of warm winter like 2019 year end, incubating the outbreak of the global pandemic), hence likely not much chance for COVID or any pandemic of warm diseases, on the contrary, diseases in the nature of coldness and dampness are likely to occur. The Major Yun for Lunar Year of 2022 would be Excessive Wind, making any contagious diseases easier to spread but making lighter impact (reflected as symptoms) on human bodies.
Note that this is based on deep climate oriented theory called “Five Yun Six Qi”, assuming little strong human intervention or Act of God. So if the public health policies and behaviors are strong enough to impact the trend, then things can come out differently.
References:
“Why Predictive Modeling Performs Worse than the Ancient Theory.”
“Why Dryness and Respiratory diseases are getting More Prevalent in 2020 & How to Heal.”
What is a Special Cure for COVID-19 (or Any Pandemic)?
Google image search result:
